B.C. Real Estate Association’s Fall 2009 Housing Forecast For The Kamloops Real Estate Market

The B.C. Real Estate Association recently released their 2009 Fall Housing Forecast. I have included the info specific to Kamloops below. You can also view the full PDF at the bottom of the page.

The Kamloops housing market is exhibiting balanced conditions and stable home prices, with buyers and sellers on equal footing. MLS® residential sales in Kamloops are estimated to decline 2 per cent this year to 2,200 units. However, an increasingly diversified local economy has lessened the impact of the recession and will contribute to a double digit rebound in home sales next year.

While an increase in home sales to end users has been evident of the past several months, recreation buyers have yet to come back into the market in significant force. Recreation buyers typically lag improved market conditions and are expected to increase their buying activity in 2010. MLS® residential sales are forecast to rise 18 per cent to 2,600 units in 2010. From a historical perspective, homes sales in 2010 will post a similar level to that recorded in the 2003-2004 period. Despite the financial crisis and a global recession, the average MLS® residential price in Kamloops is estimated to be down 2 per cent on an annual basis from a record $307,369 in 2008.

In contrast to the last 18 months, home prices in Kamloops are expected to be relatively stable in 2010, albeit forecast to climb 2 per cent to $308,000 as an annual average. Larger price appreciation in 2010 is less likely as improvement in the economy will be offset by expected increases in mortgage interest rates during the latter half of the year.

After declining 24 per cent in 2008, housing starts in the Kamloops CA are estimated to fall an additional 28 per cent to 415 units this year. A slowdown in the expansion of the housing stock helps support home prices in both the new and resale housing markets. However, lower inventory levels and stronger consumer demand is expected to induce increased new construction activity in 2010. A total of 545 housing starts are forecast for the Kamloops CA next year, with the largest increase occurring in single detached construction.

To view the full report click here:  BCREA Fall 2009 Housing Forecast

Kamloops New Development: Phase One Of The West Highland Community in the Aberdeen Highlands Has Begun Construction

This article appeared in the Kamloops This Week “New Home Buyers Guide” on Friday, August 14, 2009.

DAVE EAGLES PHOTO:  Kamloops This Week

DAVE EAGLES PHOTO: Kamloops This Week

Building a community from scratch is a lot harder than it looks – it’s what the group behind a massive development in Aberdeen is in the process of finding out. The Aberdeen Highlands Development Corporation has started construction on the first phase of it’s West Highland community and the land developer has a real life Sim City on it’s hands.

Chris Bebek, general manager for Aberdeen Highlands, explained the company has built other subdivisions, but she compared this project to starting a whole community. “You’re having to think about a lot more things than we’ve had to in the past,” she told KTW.

The to-do list before the area can be sub-divided and sold to developers is lengthy. A roundabout at Aberdeen Drive and Pacific Way is now being built will be built this summer along with all the services to the individual lots – that includes sanitary, storm and water works.

Streetlights will also be installed and Aberdeen Drive will be given a multi-use pathway that will act as a walking trail and bike path. ” There’s a lot of things that are on the go right now to get us prepared to start that pre-marketing for when it’s completed in the fall,” Bebek said. She pegged the completion date of the first phase for September or October.

In the meantime, Highland Development is updating it’s website and getting ready for pre-sales.

The first phase of the development will include 34 single-family lots, two multi family sited, a new fire hall and a mixed-use commercial-residential site. It is expected that 90 to 110 units could be built in the first phase, housing several hundred people.

While the economy and the real estate market have taken a pounding in the last year, Bebek noted Aberdeen Highlands has received plenty of interest and compiled a list of perspective developers in Kamloops.

City council gave the massive development the go-ahead last winter. The Aberdeen Highlands area, located near the top of Pacific Way and the Aberdeen Hills Golf Course, spans roughly 150 acres. Once completely built out, the development is expected to consist of nearly 1,000 new homes, along with some areas of commercial and park space.

Click here to view current properties for sale in Kamloops.

B.C. Real Estate Association’s Housing Forecast for 2009 to 2010

The B.C. Real Estate Association released their Spring 2009 housing report recently. I have included the Kamloops specific information below from this report. Click here for the full report from BCREA.

Homes sales in Kamloops are beginning to rebound from the lows experience during the fall and winter months. While the weaker provincial economy will continue to impact housing demand, sales activity is expected to improve through the balance of the year. A sizable increase in affordability is beginning to increase first-time buyer activity in the marketplace. The combination of lower home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates has made homes more affordable than at any time in the last two years. At the beginning of April, the carrying cost on the average priced home was 24 per cent less than a year ago. An increase in first-time buyers lubricates the chain of ownership by allowing move-up buyers to more easily sell their current homes and complete their new purchase.

While home sales are expected to improve in the coming months, low sales levels in the first quarter will pull down the annual total. MLS® residential sales in Kamloops are forecast to decline a further 17 per cent to 1,860 units this year. A moderate improvement is expected in 2010, with MLS® residential sales expected to climb 8 per cent to 2,000 units.

Recent data suggests market conditions in Kamloops are improving. Active listings are trending lower with home sales edging higher. The large imbalance between supply and demand that was evident early in the year is beginning to wane. A continuation of this trend will likely cause home prices to stabilize in the next quarter. The average annual MLS® residential price is forecast to be 9 per cent lower this year. However, most of this decline has already occurred and more price stability is expected for the balance of the year.

Housing starts in the Kamloops CA will follow the provincewide pull-back this year. Housing starts are forecast to decline 45 per cent to 320 units in 2009 and then increase 14 per cent to 365 in 2010. Slowing growth in the housing stock will help stabilize home prices by reducing the total number of homes available for purchase in Kamloops.

BCREA website.

Mortgage Rates: Time To Get Pre-approved or Rethink Your Mortgage

This article is from the Vancouver Sun written by Fiona Anderson. Many Kamloops residents are getting great rates on their mortgages; both refinance and pre-approval rates. Now many first time buyers have a chance to own a home. Read below for the full article.

Have a fixed-rate mortgage at 4.5 per cent or higher? Then you should be refinancing, says Steve Moffitt, senior mortgage consultant with Equimac Mortgage Centre in Vancouver. “There’s never been a better opportunity historically, never, for doing a refinancing, ” he adds.

If only it were that simple. In fact, determining whether you should refinance or not depends largely on the penalty you will pay to get out of your current mortgage, and the amount of money you could save with a new one.

The first part of the equation — the penalty — is not easy to calculate. Most fixed-term mortgages charge the greater of three months’ interest or what’s called the “interest differential.” This latter amount is the difference between the interest you would have paid for the remainder of your mortgage term and the amount the bank can earn lending out the money now.So if you have a five-year mortgage at 5.25 per cent with three years left to go, and the bank’s current three-year rate is 4.5 per cent, you’ll have to pay the difference.

Often the amount of the penalty is about the same as the savings to the borrower, “so it’s a wash,” says Feisal Panjwani, a senior mortgage consultant with Invis. Moffitt’s magic number of 4.5 per cent uses the penalty of three months’ interest, which he says he sees often. But which penalty will apply really depends on the particular mortgage. So both Panjwani and Moffitt encourage people to ask their mortgage professional to crunch the numbers for them.

The current best five-year fixed-rate available is 4.19 per cent for most borrowers, Panjwani says. And he believes the rate could go as low as 3.99 per cent in the near future. The best variable rate is the prime lending rate set by the banks plus 0.8 percentage points, which today translates into 3.3 per cent. With rates that low, everyone who currently is paying 4.5 per cent or higher should probably do the math because there could be thousands of dollars in savings.

One way to save may be switching from a fixed- to a variable-rate mortgage, because with the variable rate so low, the savings are more likely to outpace the penalty costs, Panjwani says. But because the rate does change, “that’s risky,” he adds.

Some people are refinancing their mortgages not for the savings but rather to lock in today’s low rates for five years, Panjwani says. For example, if someone has three years left in their mortgage term, they may not save any money in the first three years of the new mortgage because of the penalty. But they have guaranteed today’s rate for two years after that. Keep in mind, however, that there are costs associated with refinancing that have to be added to the equation, Panjwani says.

One group of borrowers who need not worry about refinancing are those who were already in variable-rate mortgages. In the past, those rates were calculated as prime less a premium, and some outstanding mortgages chop off as much as 0.9 percentage points. With prime now at 2.5 per cent, those people are paying 1.6-per-cent interest. That number can’t be beat, especially considering prime could go down even further. “Anyone on a variable floating below prime, I would say those people should probably hang onto that mortgage,” Panjwani says.

The low mortgage rates also have buyers knocking on lenders’ doors. Last month, 40 per cent of Panjwani’s business came from purchasers rather than those looking to refinance. While the split is normally 50-50 between the two, in the last few months only about 20 per cent were purchases, he says.

Carolyn Heaney, an area manager with BMO Bank of Montreal’s business development group, says her bank has seen a lot more first-time homebuyers. The combination of low mortgage rates and lower prices means people who have wanted to live in a particular area but couldn’t afford it now can, she says.

At the current variable mortgage rate, a $200,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization, would have payments of about $980 a month, she says. At a fixed rate of 4.39 per cent, the payments would be about $1,100. “So it’s very affordable for people to get into the market,” Heaney says.

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