Category: B.C. Real Estate News

The British Columbia Real Estate Association released it’s latest report on the B.C. housing market on March 14th, 2011.

Vancouver, BC – March 14, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province climbed 5 per cent in February from January 2011, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared to February of 2010, MLS® residential unit sales increased 8 per cent to 6,410 units. The average MLS® residential price rose 18 per cent to $587,571 in February compared to the same month last year.

“The surge in consumer demand in Metro Vancouver continues to propel the provincial statistics higher,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Elevated sales activity in Vancouver’s pricier communities has pushed average home prices higher than market conditions would suggest.” Compared to February 2010, the average MLS® residential price in Vancouver has climbed more than 19 per cent, whereas the Benchmark or typical home price has increased a more modest 4 per cent.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 15 per cent $6.03 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales remained relatively unchanged, albeit down by 0.3 per cent to 10,547 units. The average MLS® residential price climbed 15.6 per cent to $572,121 over the same period.

Central 1 Credit Union released their latest market report on March 2nd, 2011. Click on the charts to enlarge

VANCOUVER — Home sales in British Columbia will rise about 7 per cent in 2011 and the median price will set a new record of $402,000, according to the latest B.C. Housing Forecast 2011-2013, released today by Central 1 Credit Union.

Total home sales will rise to 95,500 units, rebounding from a 10.5 per cent drop in 2010 as both resale and new home sales will increase. Sales will increase another 2 per cent in 2012 and a healthy 15 per cent in 2013. “Even after those gains, sales will be below the levels we saw from 2002 to 2007,” said Central 1 economist Bryan Yu. “Low, but rising, interest rates and tighter mortgage insurance rules will restrict sales for the next few years.”

This year, sales will be stronger in the first few months as buyers move to beat the tougher mortgage insurance rules that take effect on March 18. “Metro Vancouver will observe the strongest uptick in early-year activity, given the higher proportion of local buyers and higher prices in those areas,” added Yu. During the three-year forecast period, home sales are expected to be strongest in the Metro Vancouver area and in Northern B.C.

Despite tightened mortgage insurance rules and modest increases in mortgage rates, stable levels of net in-migration and improved economic conditions will bolster sales in Metro Vancouver. The economy in the north will continue to benefit from strong commodity markets and trade-related activity, which will keep housing activity on an upward trend through the forecast horizon.

The weak links in B.C.’s housing market will remain areas with a high exposure to external recreational and retiree buyer demand. Housing markets in the Okanagan, the Kootenays and parts of Vancouver Island will continue to see weaker demand conditions in 2011 as mortgage rates rise and buyers remain hesitant to make discretionary and luxury purchases. These markets will observe significant rebounds in 2012 and 2013 as buyers take advantage of lower prices and retiree and recreational demand strengthens on improved economic conditions.

Following flat activity in 2011, housing sales in the Thompson-Okanagan region are forecast to rise 8 per cent in 2012 while the Kootenays will see 10 per cent growth. Both markets are forecast to record more than 20 per cent gains in sales in 2013.

This year, posted five-year fixed-term mortgage rates will range from an average of 5.4 per cent in the first quarter to 5.9 per cent in the fourth quarter. The average rate is projected to rise to 6.65 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

For full report click here

This report was released by the British Columbia Real Estate Association on February 23rd, 2011.

Vancouver, BC – February 23, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Housing Forecast for the first quarter of 2011 today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 8 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 80,900 units this year, and increase another 4 per cent to 83,950 units in 2012.

“British Columbia housing markets are returning to  normalcy after two years of volatility,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Employment and population growth will fuel consumer demand over the next two years. However, higher mortgage interest rates and tighter credit conditions for low equity home buyers will limit home sales to below the ten-year average of 87,600 units.”

“Total active residential listings in the province declined 14 per cent since last spring. However, the inventory of homes for sale is expected to edge higher as the number of new listings to the market advances during the first two quarters of 2011,” added Muir. “Regional market differences continue in the province, with Vancouver trending into a seller’s market, while the Okanagan, Kootenay and Kamloops markets trend from a buyer’s market toward balanced conditions.”

The average MLS® residential price is forecast to increase 2 per cent to $517,000 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2012, albeit declining by 0.4 per cent to $515,400.

This article appeared in the Vancouver Sun on February 15th, 2011 and was written by Brian Morton.

B.C.’s real estate market appears to be morphing into two categories: Metro Vancouver and the rest of the province.

While Metro Vancouver saw a strong increase in the average home price over the past year – up 19.6 per cent in January compared to January 2010, from $638,000 to $763,000 — that’s not the case for most other regions of B.C., according to a survey released Monday by the B.C. Real Estate Association, which represents 11 real estate board across the province and 18,000 realtors.

Except for Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and – for this month, at least – the Kootenays, the province has seen average prices fall, in some cases substantially, in every region in January compared to the same month last year.

“There’s certainly a divergence in the market [between] the south coast and the rest of the province,” BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir said in an interview Monday. “There’s very strong market activity in parts of Vancouver. And that’s skewing the average price higher.”

Despite the difference between Metro Vancouver and the rest of the province, Muir said the numbers can be misleading because the huge increase in Metro Vancouver’s average price was largely because of a surge in purchases of luxury, executive homes in Richmond and the west side of Vancouver.

He said the “benchmark” price — the price of a typical home in Vancouver — actually rose just a bit more than two per cent over the year. He did not have information on benchmark prices for elsewhere in the province.

According to the BCREA survey, the average price of a home in B.C. rose 11.5 per cent, to $548,183, in January compared to January, 2010.

The BCREA also said that Multiple Listing Service sales climbed seven per cent in January from December 2010, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Compared to January of last year, home sales were down 10 per cent, to 4,137 units.

The survey noted that the inventory of homes for sale remained below 47,000 units for the third consecutive month in January, down 14 per cent from the spring of last year.

While the south Okanagan saw prices drop 8.9 per cent, from $310,000 to $283,000, the Okanagan Mainline (from Kelowna north) saw prices drop 2.9 per cent, from $387,000 to $376,000.

Vancouver Island prices dropped 5.7 per cent, from $328,000 to $309,000, while Victoria prices fell 4.5 per cent, from $510,000 to $486,000.

B.C. Northern prices fell 4.6 per cent, from $215,000 to $205,000, Chilliwack dropped five per cent, from $289,000 to $275,000, and Kamloops prices dropped 1.5 per cent from $314,000 to $309,000.

Powell River saw the steepest drop in the province, 29.6 per cent, from $301,000 to $212,000, while Kootenay bucked the trend in January with a 4.7-per-cent increase, from $264,000 to $276,000.

Muir said Vancouver is doing better because its economy is more diversified that the rest of B.C. and also has the advantage of significantly more immigrants, many of whom are in the investor class and typically buy a house upon arrival.

Muir noted that the Okanagan is in buyers’ market conditions, with 22 months of housing supply, meaning that it would normally take 22 months to use up the existing inventory.

“In Vancouver, it’s 6.1 months of supply. A balanced market is typically five to seven months.”

As well, he noted, one of the Okanagan’s main source of buyers – Alberta investors – has dried up, with many looking south of the border for cheaper recreational properties.

Carol Frketich, B.C. regional economist for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said in an interview that while a one-month snapshot doesn’t tell the whole story, Metro Vancouver has generally done better than the rest of the province. “And Vancouver’s employment has been stronger than the provincial average. That provides a solid basis for the housing demand.”

Frketich noted that housing starts in the Vancouver CMA (census metropolitan area) saw a 57-per-cent hike in January to 1,436 from 917 in January 2010, with the Abbotsford and Kamloops CMAs also saw increases.

On average, urban centres saw a 15-per-cent rise over that period, although Frketich cautioned that one month doesn’t indicate a trend.

Meanwhile, Muir said he expects home sales to moderate this year as higher interest rates push mortgages up, impacting affordability.

He said there should be a “moderate improvement” in interior home prices in 2011.